Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions November Trend shocks and sudden stops November Trade liberalization and domestic vertical integration: Evidence from China November Rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection November Macro-prudential taxation in good times November International organizations and the political economy of reforms November Good for the environment, good for business: Foreign acquisitions and energy intensity November Preferential trade agreements and antidumping protection November September Brain drain, informality and inequality: A search-and-matching model for sub-Saharan Africa September Fiscal consolidations and the cost of credit September Geography, competition, and optimal multilateral trade policy September Firm size, quality bias and import demand September Trading off the income gains and the inequality costs of trade policy September US exports and employment September Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations Available online 16 September Redistribution, selection, and trade Available online 5 September Trade and the geographic spread of the great recession July International financial integration and income inequality in a stochastically growing economy July Reforms and the real exchange rate: The role of pricing-to-market July Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals July Exchange rate disconnect and private information: What can we learn from Euro-Dollar tweets?
July Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade July Multinational production and comparative advantage July Globalization and mental distress July Global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy - Open access May The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rates - Open access May Quantitative sovereign default models and the European debt crisis - Open access May On corporate borrowing, credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies: An empirical investigation May Estimating firm product quality using trade data May International business cycles and financial frictions May Long-term changes in married couples' labor supply and taxes: Evidence from the US and Europe since the s - Open access May Foreign expansion, competition and bank risk - Open access May Allowing for heterogeneity in both sectors, they show that trade raises productivity in each of them.
However, productivity rises relatively more in the sector with comparative advantage—namely, in the sector that uses relatively intensively the input with which the country is well endowed. They use this analytical model to derive a generalized gravity equation for trade flows, as well as an equation for trade participation. Since trade participation depends on the fixed cost of exporting, while the volume of exports—conditional on exporting—does not, the system provides a natural way to correct for selection bias in estimating trade flows.
This bias emanates from the fact that only the most productive firms select into exporting. Moreover, the participation equation can be used to identify the extensive margin of trade, which results from variation in the number of firms that choose to export. Finally, this equation accounts in a natural way for the lack of exports from a country to some potential trade partners for which the fixed trade cost may be too high to make such exports profitable. Many of the issues discussed in this section are further elaborated in Melitz and Redding Labour market frictions are widespread.
They differ across countries as a result of differences in hiring and firing practices, the effectiveness of labour markets, and government policies such as unemployment insurance. As a result, rates of unemployment vary across countries and in a trading world they are interdependent. In particular, a country's rate of unemployment depends on the labour market frictions of its trade partners in addition to its own labour market frictions.
What Ricardo missed…
Apart from these frictions, those studies employed neoclassical frameworks to examine the impact of trade on unemployment. More recently, trade and unemployment have been jointly studied for economies with firm heterogeneity and monopolistic competition. Helpman and Itskhoki develop a framework in which there is a traditional homogeneous sector and a sector that produces varieties of a differentiated product.
The former sector is competitive in the product market, the latter engages in monopolistic competition. In both sectors there is search and matching in the labour market. In particular, the country that has lower labour market frictions in the differentiated sector relative to the homogeneous sector exports differentiated products on net. A sufficient statistic for these frictions is the resulting cost of hiring, which can differ across sectors and countries.
Helpman and Itskhoki also show that both countries gain from trade, independently of the impact of trade on unemployment. Tracing the impact of trade on unemployment reveals complicated patterns. Trade may, for example, increase or reduce the level of unemployment. Particularly important is the finding that a reduction in one country's labour market frictions in the differentiated sector raises its welfare but hurts the trade partner. On the other hand, there exist coordinated reductions in labour market frictions in both countries that benefit both.
And when unemployment insurance is beneficial, there exists an optimal level that maximizes welfare. Yet this cannot always be achieved with unemployment insurance, because in some circumstances a tax rather than a subsidy on hiring costs is required. As a rule, optimal policies do not discriminate between exporting and domestic activities. Research concerning the impact of trade on wage inequality was traditionally focused on the relative wages of workers with different skills or workers employed in different sectors and occupations.
Much of this work resorted to differences in factor intensities across sectors to transmit international prices into factor rewards.
As a result, when the college wage premium almost doubled in the USA between the late s and early s, scholars first examined whether this development could be explained by globalization, and in particular by the increased participation of less developed countries in world trade see Helpman , ch. This conclusion was strengthened by studies that showed rising relative wages of skilled workers across the board, in developed and less developing countries alike see also Goldberg and Pavcnik While wage inequality across skill groups has increased to some extent, changes in the return to observed skills—such as education—account for a small fraction of the rise in overall wage inequality.
The majority of the rise in wage inequality was due to the rise in residual wage inequality, which represents differences in the wages of workers with similar characteristics.
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Evidently, residual wage inequality is large in both these countries, which differ greatly from each other in other dimensions. In their model, heterogeneous firms select into exporting on the basis of total factor productivity. Workers search for jobs, and firms post vacancies.
But while workers are ex ante identical, a worker's match with a job generates a random productivity outcome. This outcome is not observable, yet firms can invest in screening to identify workers with a productivity level above an endogenously chosen threshold.
As a result, wage bargaining leads to higher wages being paid by more productive firms. Under the circumstances, more productive firms are larger, employ better workers and pay higher wages, and the most productive among them export, all in line with the evidence.
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A major implication of this model is that lowering trade costs raises residual wage inequality when trade costs are high, and reduces residual wage inequality when trade costs are low. In this framework, trade affects residual wage inequality. This is roughly the largest gap in inequality that trade can generate when fixed export costs vary between zero and infinity.
By refocusing the analysis from sectors to firms, recent research has also improved our understanding of the role of multinational corporations MNCs in global supply chains. These companies are very large, and they play dominant roles in production, employment and foreign trade. Of these exports, billion were intrafirm i. In the manufacturing sector, foreign affiliates of these companies sold large fractions of output in the host countries, but they also exported some of it to the USA and to other countries.
Affiliates of foreign multinationals are important enterprises in the economies of many countries. Because they are bigger than domestic firms, their shares in employment, sales and exports far exceed their relative number. Moreover, foreign affiliates in Poland, Sweden, Finland, Israel and Estonia exported more than half of their turnover a measure of revenue. And in countries with low export propensities, this share remained significant: This informal approach was later replaced by more detailed modelling of MNCs, including their decisions to engage in horizontal FDI, vertical FDI, and complex integration strategies.
In this classification, horizontal FDI concerns situations in which a firm acquires a foreign subsidiary in order to serve the host country market; vertical FDI concerns situations in which a firm acquires a foreign subsidiary in order to produce intermediate inputs for its own use; and complex integration strategies concern situations in which decisions to serve a foreign market via subsidiary sales are reliant on vertical FDI possibly in a different country that imparts cheap inputs.
U.S. trade policy—time to start over | Economic Policy Institute
A firm that serves a foreign market with exports bears export costs, but saves the cost of acquiring a subsidiary abroad. On the other side, a firm that serves a foreign market with subsidiary sales bears the cost of the subsidiary, but saves on export costs. They show that, in line with the evidence, this model implies that among firms that stay in an industry, the least productive serve only the domestic market, the most productive serve foreign markets via subsidiary sales, and firms with intermediate productivity levels serve foreign markets with exports.
Furthermore, all these effects are quantitatively of comparable size. Evidently, firm heterogeneity is a significant source of comparative advantage. These findings are further confirmed by Yeaple with a more detailed analysis. Pure vertical FDI lowers the cost of producing intermediate inputs, mostly due to low wages in the host country see Helpman Availability of sites with low manufacturing costs encourages vertical FDI, but only in situations in which the cost of fragmentation of production is not too high.
These developments raised again the question posed by Coase : what are the boundaries of the firm? Except that in this context, the relevant boundaries include multinationality. Although a number of alternative approaches to the organization of firms have been examined in the literature e.
He also finds a positive correlation between an exporting country's capital abundance and its share of intrafirm exports to the USA, in line with the model's prediction. In this framework, firms sort into alternative organizational forms based on total factor productivity. Among the firms that stay in an industry, the most productive offshore while the least productive serve the home market only.
Among the domestic firms, the most productive integrate while the least productive outsource. And similarly, among firms that serve foreign markets, the most productive integrate i. This pecking order is based on the assumption that fixed costs of operating abroad are higher than fixed costs of operating at home, and fixed costs of integration are higher than fixed costs of outsourcing.
The model also predicts that the share of intrafirm trade should be larger in sectors with higher headquarter intensity and larger productivity dispersion. For the latter prediction there is also evidence from the USA, using a variety of measures of productivity dispersion see Yeaple ; Nunn and Trefler , The field of international trade has undergone two major revolutions in the last three decades: first by integrating product differentiation and monopolistic competition into its mainstream, second by expanding the integrated framework to accommodate firm heterogeneity.
This has greatly enriched the analytical framework, making it both more suitable for addressing a host of questions that became paramount for understanding globalization and also more suitable for empirical analysis with the newly available rich datasets. We now have better tools for studying the complex web of trade flows and foreign direct investment, including the boundaries of international firms and global supply chains.
And we have better tools for studying the impact of international trade on unemployment and inequality, two facets of globalization that have raised many concerns. Volume 81 , Issue The full text of this article hosted at iucr. If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account.
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International Trade and Unemployment
Abstract This Economica Coase Lecture reviews research that has revolutionized the field of international trade and foreign direct investment. Inequality Research concerning the impact of trade on wage inequality was traditionally focused on the relative wages of workers with different skills or workers employed in different sectors and occupations. Akerman, A. Sources of wage inequality. American Economic Review , 3 , — Crossref Google Scholar.
Related International Trade and Unemployment: On the Redistribution of Trade Gains When Firms Matter
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